Chances Against Fedor Grim for Cinderella Rogers

Share on Facebook posted 11-05-09 by John George

Nobody’s giving Brett “The Grim” Rogers (10-0-0) much of a chance against Fedor “The Last Emperor” Emelianenko (31-1-0) in a Strikeforce heavyweight bout to be broadcast on CBS Saturday night from the Sears Center Arena in Chicago.

Fedor dominated the heavyweight ranks of the now-defunct Pride Fighting Championships from 2002 until the organization became defunct in 2007. Since then, he’s fought and defeated opponents in Affliction and other fighting promotions. During his long career, he’s defeated most of the world’s best MMA heavyweights including Andrei Arlovsky, Tim Sylvia, Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera, Mark Coleman, Kevin Randleman, Heath Herring, Mirko Filipovic, Matt Lindland, Mark Hunt and others.

By contrast, the only opponent of any consequence that Rogers has defeated is Arlovsky. It must be noted that Rogers did the deed in fantastic fashion, knocking the Belorussian badass out in only 22 seconds, while it took Fedor just over three minutes to take Arlovsky out. This shows that Rogers is clearly a threat. Standing six-feet, five-inches tall and weighing 265, he towers over the six-foot, 235-pound Fedor.

Rogers has proven he’s got lots of power in his fists, knocking out all but one of his opponents in the first round. He knocked the other one out in the second. Again, though, these were not world-class fighters of the type faced by Fedor for the past decade. In fact, Fedor has faced bigger and stronger opponents than Rogers. He’s also defeated fighters with much better striking skills.

Rogers is like a modern-day Rocky. Growing up impoverished on the South Side of Chicago, he lived in the city’s notoriously tough Cabrini Green housing project before moving to Minnesota with his grandmother at the age of 12 and settling down in St. Paul. He played basketball in high school and junior college, and took up amateur boxing before getting into MMA. He made a living changing tires at the Sam’s Club in Woodbury, Minn., to provide for his wife and three kids while trying to make it as a fighter. Knocking Arlovsky out propelled him through the heavyweight rankings and got him his shot at Fedor.

Fedor is much tougher than anyone Rocky had to face in any of Rocky’s movies. The Russian is a combat Sambo and judo fighter who has crippling submissions and is an absolute beast on the ground. He’s no slouch on his feet either, possessing iron fists and a granite chin. He’s withstood some unbelievably heavy shots and has always come back to win. His lone loss was a controversial stoppage due to a cut. While he’s been criticized for not being the most precise striker, his heavy hands have erased any advantage his more technical opponents may have fared. He’s widely, and pretty much unanimously, considered the best heavyweight fighter in the world. And with good reason.

Rogers has made some top-10 lists due to his Arlovsky knockout, but I believe that is an inflation of his true place in the elite heavyweight ranks. By all accounts, Rogers doesn’t have much of a ground game. That is a huge hole in a mixed martial arts division where the top dogs, including UFC Champion Brock Lesnar, top contender Shane Carwin, and rising star Cain Velasquez all possess tremendous wrestling ability, along with the power to hit very hard. The ultra-durable Noguiera is also in the mix, as is Frank Mir, who has moments of true jiu jitsu greatness, and Cheick Congo, who has sledgehammer kicks in addition to wrecking ball fists. Ben Rothwell should also not be dismissed for his recent loss to Velasquez. If he changes his tactics a bit and improves his take-down defense to keep fights standing, he’ll be a formidable force in the heavyweight division as well.

Rogers has a great story, and it’s always great to root for the Cinderella guy, but neither I nor anyone else give him much of a chance to win. Of course, anything can happen inside that octagonal cage. Rogers does hit hard enough to potentially knock Fedor out if he can connect. That’s a big “if,” but wouldn’t it be cool if the kid from the projects who changed tires for a living to support his family became the guy who knocked out the world’s to heavyweight? It would be so cool, they’d have to make a movie out of it.