Experienced Big Man Takes on Brown Pride Warrior in Tonight’s UFC Heavyweight Showdown

Share on Facebook posted 10-24-09 by John George

The outcome of tonight’s heavyweight fight between Ben Rothwell (30-60-0) and Cain Velasquez (6-0-0) is much more difficult to predict than the main event featuring Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida versus Mauricio “Shogun” Rua in the Ultimate Fighting Championship 104, to be broadcast on Pay Per View from the Staples Center in Los Angeles. Some of the preliminary bouts will be broadcast free on Spike earlier.

Interestingly, many odds-makers are considering Rothwell the underdog, giving 3-1 odds in favor of Velasquez. By contrast, Machida is favored 4-1 over Rua. I agree that Machida should be able to defeat Rua, and probably without too much trouble. And the 4-1 odds are probably on target. But it’s not at all clear to me who is a favorite in the Rothwell-Velasquez matchup.

Rothwell is a very, very seasoned veteran who has faced some tremendously tough competition in various promotions including Affliction, the International Fight League and King of the Cage. He’s beaten a number of very good opponents, including former UFC heavyweight champ Ricco Rodriguez and Travis Fulton, as well as Krzysztof “The Polish Experiment” Soszynski twice.

Rothwell’s last loss was to world-class striker and former UFC heavyweight champ Andrei Arlovski in July 2008. Before then he had won 11 straight fights in a three-year period. He is a huge man who weighed in at the heavyweight maximum of 265 pounds and stands six feet, five inches tall. He is primarily a slugger, but his game is well rounded enough to allow him to compete at the highest levels.

The big man’s record boasts 11 submissions and 17 combined knockouts and technical knockouts. He’s been knocked out twice and has suffered one technical knockout, when he couldn’t answer the bell. He’s only been submitted once, when he got caught in a kimura by six-foot-eight, 270-pound Dan Christison. He’s obviously good at stopping people, and he hasn’t been stopped very much.

In his childhood, Rothwell has said, he was a spoiled kid who became a fat boy and was picked on by other kids in junior high school. He spent the summer before ninth grade lifting weights, and he became a big, bad bully himself by his high school years. Speaking about this period of his life during an interview on Spike, he displayed a genuine regret for his immature behavior and also a genuine humility. He comes off like a decent, gentle man — one who also happens to be a giant badass in the cage.

By contrast, Velasquez is a much smaller man who stands six feet two inches and weighed in yesterday at only 238. That’s almost 30 pounds lighter than Rothwell! He’d be perfect for a 225-pound weight class, if the UFC ever wises up and creates one. He might even be able to get down to 205 pounds if he tries hard enough. I think he will have his hands full dealing with the size and strength of Rothwell.

Velasquez is an excellent wrestler who was a two-time All-American heavyweight at Arizona State University. He was able to use wrestling to win a decisive decision in his last fight over Cheick Congo. Congo had caught Velasquez with some powerful shots, but Velasquez showed a very hard chin and was able to hang in and take Congo down at will. Congo totally sucks on the ground. He’s a poor wrestler and doesn’t have too much in the way of jiu jitsu. None of Velasquez’s other five UFC opponents have been particularly notable.

Rothwell will be by far the biggest challenge Velasquez has faced. This is Rothwell’s first fight in the UFC, and the big man is determined the make the most of it. He’s spent a decade in the smaller promotions, and this is his opportunity to break into the big time. He’s very motivated to get a heavyweight title shot.

Velasquez is also motivated to become the heavyweight champ, but for a somewhat different reason: He wants to be the first person of Mexican descent to hold the UFC heavyweight title. He wants to represent the “Brown Pride” that is scrawled across his upper chest in gothic lettering.

Personally, I don’t think Velasquez is big enough to ever be able to achieve his goal. I don’t think he’ll be able to get past Rothwell tonight. Rothwell is much harder to take down, and much more experienced and cunning on the ground than Congo. I think Velasquez will take some serious punishment going in for a takedown.

I foresee either a first- or second-round knockout win for Rothwell. I could maybe see Velasquez connecting on a punch and knocking Rothwell out, but I don’t think the odds are in his favor.

Even if Velasquez does manage to defeat Rothwell tonight, he would still have to face either current heavyweight champ Brock Lesnar or top contender Shane Carwin. Both Lesnar and Carwin are also much bigger than Velasquez, and their wrestling is probably just as good as his. I just don’t see Velasquez being able to overcome his size disadvantage at the highest levels of the UFC heavyweight division.

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